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Freshman comedy The Mayor is now by far ABC’s lowest-rating comedy. The network is not exactly struggling with its comedies (see the drama section for trouble), so there is no way that it will give The Mayor a pity renewal. It is a Certain Cancellation.

Replacement level for a broadcast drama (except for The CW) currently lies around a 0.7 in adults 18-49, but for ABC that would mean that 6 out of its 10 current dramas would be cancelled (and Scandal, one of the remaining 4, is in its final season). Even if all three new midseason dramas (Deception, For The People and The Crossing) would do great, starting out next season with just 6 existing dramas (of which 4 sophomores) is not really an option.

But then the question is, which of those badly rating dramas are going to make the cut? Of the six series at or near replacement level, Designated Survivor is the only veteran that has already shown what it’s worth this season, which makes it a Certain Renewal. And with Marvel’s Inhumans not exactly making an impression, Marvel’s Agents Of S.H.I.E.L.D.‘s chances have greatly gone up; it becomes a Likely Renewal.

As for Kevin (Probably) Saves The World, Once Upon A Time and Marvel’s Inhumans, check back next week.

ShowStatus / Prediction
Modern FamilyRenewed
The GoldbergsRenewed
Grey’s AnatomyCertain Renewal
How To Get Away With MurderCertain Renewal
Black-ishCertain Renewal
Designated SurvivorCertain Renewal
American HousewifeCertain Renewal
The Good DoctorCertain Renewal
Marvel’s Agents Of S.H.I.E.L.D.Likely Renewal
Fresh Off The BoatLikely Renewal
SpeechlessLikely Renewal
Once Upon A TimeLikely Cancellation
Kevin (Probably) Saves The WorldLikely Cancellation
Somewhere BetweenCertain Cancellation
Marvel’s InhumansCertain Cancellation
The MayorCertain Cancellation
Ten Days In The ValleyEffectively Cancelled
ScandalFinal Season
The MiddleFinal Season
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